Most organisations diagnose the moment the problem surfaced
The moment a problem surfaces is not the moment the conditions changed. The gap is where the architecture absorbed the load.
Most organisations diagnose the moment the problem surfaced, not the moment the conditions changed.
The two are separated by months. Sometimes years.
A team begins straining in February. The effects become visible in October.
Between those two points the architecture absorbed the load.
People filled the gaps. People stopped asking why. Process bent around what wasn't holding.
Then a deadline compressed, or someone left, or a decision needed to land, and the compensating layer ran out.
What surfaced in October was not the beginning of the problem.
It was the point where the structure stopped absorbing it.